March 2020. COVID lockdowns start.
I was at Costco on Day 3 of panic buying. The parking lot looked like Black Friday. Inside was chaos.
People were fighting over toilet paper. Shopping carts stacked so high they could barely push them. Checkout lines wrapped around the entire store.
But here’s what fascinated me: the pattern of what disappeared.
Day 1: Toilet paper and hand sanitizer, gone completely.
Day 2: Bread, milk, eggs, shelves empty.
Day 3: Meat, pasta, canned goods, wiped out.
Day 5: Fresh produce still available. Rice and beans still in stock. Spices fully stocked.
The crowd was panic-buying the wrong things.
They grabbed what felt scarce (toilet paper), what they were used to eating (bread and milk), and what looked substantial (meat).
Meanwhile, the foods that would actually sustain them long-termrice, beans, flour, oil, sat ignored on shelves for another week.
I’ve studied supply chain disruptions since 2012.
I’ve analyzed historical crises, interviewed survivors, and watched panic buying patterns during hurricanes, snowstorms, and now a pandemic.
The pattern is always the same: people buy emotionally, not strategically.
Understanding what disappears when, and why, is critical for realistic preparedness.
Because the foods that vanish on Day 1 aren’t necessarily the ones you need most.
And the foods still available on Day 30 might be the ones keeping people alive.
Let me walk you through exactly how food crises unfold, what disappears in what order, and what you should actually be stockpiling before everyone else figures it out.
How Food Crises Actually Develop
Before we talk about specific timelines, you need to understand how supply chains fail. Because food doesn’t just disappear randomly, there’s a predictable cascade.
Modern grocery stores operate on “just-in-time” inventory systems. They keep 3-7 days of stock on shelves and in back rooms.
Everything else is in warehouses or transit. This maximizes profit by minimizing storage costs. It also creates massive vulnerability.
When demand spikes suddenly, hurricane warnings, pandemic fears, civil unrest, stores can’t restock fast enough.
The supply chain is designed for steady, predictable demand.
It can’t handle everyone trying to buy a month of food in one day.
Here’s what happens in sequence:
First, distribution centers get overwhelmed. Orders from thousands of stores arrive simultaneously.
Warehouses that normally ship 100 pallets per day suddenly need to ship 500. They physically can’t move product that fast.
Second, trucking bottlenecks develop. There aren’t enough drivers or trucks to move the volume.
Even if warehouses could load faster, transportation can’t scale instantly.
Third, store restocking slows to a crawl. Instead of daily deliveries, stores might get trucks every 2-3 days.
Each truck that arrives gets mobbed by shoppers within hours.
Fourth, suppliers run out of raw materials.
If panic buying continues for weeks, manufacturers can’t source ingredients fast enough.
Flour mills can’t get wheat.
Canning facilities can’t get cans. The problem moves upstream.
I watched this exact cascade during COVID.
During the Texas freeze in 2021. During Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
The timeline varies, but the pattern is identical: sudden demand spike, supply chain overwhelm, cascading shortages that get worse before they get better.
Understanding this cascade helps you predict what disappears when.
Because different foods rely on different parts of the supply chain, and those parts fail at different rates.
Day 1: Panic Buying and Perception
The first 24 hours of a crisis are pure emotion. People aren’t thinking strategically, they’re reacting to fear and social pressure.
What Disappears Immediately (Hours 1-24)
Toilet paper and paper products. Not food, but it’s always first. Why?
Because it’s visible, bulky, and people remember previous shortages.
Fear of running out triggers hoarding behavior.
During COVID, stores were out of toilet paper within 6 hours of lockdown announcements.
Bottled water. Even when tap water is fine, bottled water vanishes first. People equate crisis with water scarcity even when water systems are functioning perfectly.
A case of 24 bottles takes up a full shopping cart, looks substantial, and feels like doing something.
Bread and milk. These are the “French Toast” items, what people habitually buy before storms. Bread lasts days, not weeks.
Milk requires refrigeration and spoils quickly.
Neither is practical for real food storage.
But they disappear instantly because they’re familiar comfort foods.
Fresh meat. Expensive, substantial-looking, feels like “real food” to most Americans.
People load up on steaks, chicken, ground beef, then realize a week later that their freezer is full and their refrigerator is losing power.
During the Texas freeze, I watched people panic-buy $200 worth of meat, then lose it all when power went out.
Eggs. Protein source, breakfast staple, seems essential.
Gone within hours. Reality: eggs last 3-5 weeks refrigerated but most people don’t know that.
They buy two dozen thinking they’re preparing when they’ve bought maybe 12 breakfasts.
What’s Still Available (Day 1)
Here’s the irony: the foods that will actually sustain you through extended crisis are still sitting on shelves at the end of Day 1.
Rice and dried beans, still fully stocked.
Why? They’re boring. People don’t think of them as “real food” unless they already eat them regularly. They require cooking skills most Americans don’t have. And they don’t provide the psychological comfort of familiar foods.
Canned vegetables, mostly untouched.
Fresh produce is gone, but canned green beans, corn, carrots sit ignored.
People associate canned vegetables with poverty or depression-era eating. They grab fresh (which spoils in days) and ignore canned (which lasts years).
Flour and cooking oil, abundant. Most Americans don’t bake bread or cook from scratch. These ingredients seem pointless when you can just buy bread. Except the bread is already gone and flour is still available.
Spices and seasonings, completely ignored. Nobody thinks about spices during Day 1 panic buying.
But try eating unseasoned rice and beans for two weeks and you’ll understand why spices matter more than most “essential” items people grabbed.
The lesson: Day 1 buying patterns are driven by emotion, visibility, and habit.
Not by actual survival value or shelf life. Smart preppers avoid Day 1 entirely, they already have what they need before crisis hits.
Day 3-7: Reality Sets In
By Day 3, panic buying has created actual shortages.
Stores are struggling to restock.
People are making second trips because they realize what they forgot. The supply chain stress is becoming visible.
What Disappears (Days 3-7)
Pasta and pasta sauce. Takes a few days because people grabbed bread first. But once bread is gone for 48+ hours, people pivot to pasta.
It’s familiar, easy to cook, stores reasonably well. During COVID, pasta aisles were bare by Day 5.
Canned soups and prepared foods. People who don’t normally cook start grabbing anything that requires minimal preparation.
Soup, chili, stews, anything you can heat and eat. These provide psychological comfort and require no skills.
Rice and beans (finally). By Day 5-7, enough people have figured out that staples matter. Rice and beans start flying off shelves.
But there’s still more available than Day 1 items because most people still don’t want them.
Peanut butter. Protein-dense, doesn’t require refrigeration, kids eat it. Once fresh meat is unavailable for days, people start looking for alternative proteins. Peanut butter disappears faster than people expect.
Baby formula and diapers. Parents with infants panic when they realize supply chains are disrupted.
Formula becomes currency. During every crisis I’ve tracked, parents will trade almost anything for formula.
What’s Still Available (Days 3-7)
Dried beans (some varieties). White beans, lima beans, chickpeas, less popular varieties are still available even as pintos and black beans disappear. People have preferences even during crises.
Bulk grains. Oats, barley, wheat berries, anything that requires more than boiling water is still on shelves.
The cooking skills gap is real. If you can’t make oatmeal from rolled oats, you’re not buying them during crisis.
Canned fish. Tuna is gone by Day 5, but sardines, mackerel, salmon, less popular options remain.
Americans have strong preferences and won’t adjust easily even under stress.
Cooking oil (mostly). Still abundant because most people don’t cook from scratch.
But starting to thin out as people who grabbed rice and pasta realize they need oil to cook them.
Flour (somewhat). Starting to move but still available.
Bread hasn’t restocked in days, but most people still haven’t made the mental leap to “I could bake my own bread.”
By Day 7, smart preppers are watching secondary shortages develop. The obvious stuff is gone.
Now intermediate items are disappearing as people adjust their buying patterns.
Day 10-14: Supply Chain Stress Peaks
Two weeks into sustained crisis, supply chains are seriously degraded. Trucks are arriving irregularly.
Stores are rationing items. Lines form before stores open.
What Disappears (Days 10-14)
All meat products, fresh or frozen. Processing plants are running reduced capacity due to worker shortages, safety protocols, or transportation issues.
Fresh and frozen meat become extremely scarce. What arrives sells out within an hour.
Most canned goods. Even unpopular varieties are gone now. People are buying anything canned regardless of preference.
Canned spinach, canned beets, canned hominy, items that normally sit for months are selling out.
All varieties of rice and beans. No more selective buying. Any beans available get purchased immediately.
Black, pinto, navy, kidney, all gone within hours of restocking.
Baking supplies. Flour, sugar, yeast, everyone’s trying to bake now that bread hasn’t been available for two weeks.
Yeast especially becomes impossible to find as people try to make bread at home.
Cooking oil. Finally gone as people who stockpiled dry goods realize they need fats to cook them.
Vegetable oil, canola oil, olive oil, all varieties disappear.
What’s Still Available (Days 10-14)
Specialty items and imports. Quinoa, couscous, specialty rice varieties like arborio or jasmine. Expensive, unfamiliar, require different cooking methods.
Still sitting on shelves while staples are gone.
Spices and seasonings. Still barely touched. People are so focused on getting food that they forget about making it palatable.
This is a massive mistake that becomes obvious around Week 3 when they’re eating unseasoned food.
Bulk whole grains. Wheat berries, barley, whole oats, anything requiring grinding or extensive cooking.
The skills gap keeps these available longer than they should be.
Condiments. Hot sauce, soy sauce, vinegar, mustard, still mostly available. People grabbed ketchup and mayo early (because meat), but other condiments sit ignored until people realize they make stored food bearable.
Honey and maple syrup. More expensive than sugar, but better shelf life and more versatile.
Still available because people grabbed cheap white sugar first.
By Day 14, there’s a clear divide: people who prepared early are fine. People who started buying during Day 1 panic are struggling.
People who waited until Week 2 are finding almost nothing.
Day 15-30: Long-Term Scarcity Emerges
This is where most prepper discussion ends, but real crises often continue.
COVID disruptions lasted months. Historical supply chain failures have lasted years. Understanding Week 3-4 patterns is critical.
What Disappears (Days 15-30)
Everything that’s been restocking. Even if stores get occasional shipments, items sell out within hours.
Shopping becomes full-time job, checking multiple stores daily, getting in line before opening, hoping for restocks.
Fresh produce (when available). Anything fresh that arrives is gone immediately.
People are desperate for variety after weeks of canned and dried food. Produce commands premium prices and disappears fastest.
Alternative proteins. With meat scarce for weeks, people finally start buying dried lentils, textured vegetable protein, protein powder, anything providing protein without refrigeration.
Salt and basic seasonings. Finally disappearing as people who’ve been eating bland food for 2-3 weeks realize seasoning is essential, not optional. Salt especially becomes valuable for food preservation.
Pet food. Often overlooked in initial panic, pet food shortages develop by Week 3-4 as supply chains for animal feed disrupt. People realize they can’t feed their animals regular food sustainably.
What’s Still Available (Days 15-30)
Honestly? Very little if the crisis is real and sustained.
Damaged or dented cans. Cosmetically imperfect but perfectly safe food that people avoided earlier.
Now they’re buying anything regardless of condition.
Truly specialty items. Obscure grains, expensive gourmet products, ethnic foods unfamiliar to most Americans.
These last longest because demand is lowest.
Non-food items people forgot. Water purification tablets, manual can openers, camp stoves.
Ironically, the tools needed to use stored food are often still available because people focused on food itself.
Seeds and gardening supplies. By Week 4, forward-thinking people start buying seeds.
But most haven’t connected sustained food shortage with need to grow their own.
By Day 30, if crisis continues, real problems emerge. It’s not just shortages, it’s sustained scarcity. Stores may be open but mostly empty.
Prices may have increased dramatically. Rationing may be in effect.
What History Teaches Us About Food Crises
COVID was unique because supply chains never fully collapsed, they just got stressed.
Food remained available, just scarce temporarily in some categories.
But real food crises are different. Let me share patterns from actual sustained shortages.
Venezuela’s collapse (2016-present): Week 1, basic staples disappeared. Week 2, all meat and dairy gone.
Week 3-4, even rice and beans became scarce.
By Month 2, people were eating once daily. By Month 6, hunting pets and wildlife for protein. The timeline was brutal and accelerating.
Argentina’s economic crisis (2001-2002): Currency collapsed overnight. Store shelves emptied within 72 hours as people spent rapidly devaluing money.
Within two weeks, food prices had increased 400%. Within a month, barter replaced currency in many areas.
The Depression (1930s): Progressive shortages over months as people lost income.
Meat became luxury. Fresh produce became seasonal-only. Canned goods and staples were stretched as far as possible.
People survived on beans, potatoes, bread, and whatever they could grow or forage.
Siege of Sarajevo (1992-1996): Complete supply cutoff.
Within one week, all food in stores was gone. By Week 2, people were eating humanitarian rations. By Month 2, trading valuables for food.
By Year 1, eating anything remotely edible, pigeons, grass, tree bark.
The pattern across all sustained crises: rapid initial depletion (Days 1-7), sustained scarcity (Weeks 2-4), alternative food sources become necessary (Month 2+), survival becomes primary concern (Month 6+).
The critical insight: If you wait until Day 1 of crisis to stock up, you’re already too late for most essential items.
If you’re still shopping during Week 2-4, you’re competing with desperate people for scraps.
Why People Buy Wrong
Understanding the psychology behind panic buying explains why smart preppers can stay ahead of crowds.
Recency bias: People buy based on recent memory.
Last crisis was toilet paper shortage, so they buy toilet paper first this crisis.
They’re preparing for the last emergency, not the current one.
Visibility bias: Bulky, visible items feel more substantial.
A shopping cart full of toilet paper and bottled water looks like preparation even if it’s terrible survival value.
A bag of rice and beans looks inadequate even though it’s superior.
Comfort seeking: Under stress, people grab familiar foods. Mac and cheese, cereal, snacks.
These provide psychological comfort but minimal survival value.
During Venezuelan crisis, people who hoarded comfort foods starved while people who stored staples survived.
Skills gap: Most Americans can’t cook from scratch.
They don’t buy flour because they can’t bake bread.
They don’t buy dried beans because they can’t cook them. They grab prepared foods because that’s all they know.
Normalcy bias: People assume crisis will end quickly. They buy food for “a few weeks” not “indefinite duration.” They grab fresh food that spoils quickly instead of shelf-stable food that lasts years.
I’ve watched these patterns repeat in every crisis since 2012. The crowds always buy emotionally.
They grab visible items, familiar items, comfort items. They ignore boring staples, unfamiliar ingredients, and items requiring skills.
That predictability is opportunity for prepared people. You can anticipate what disappears when and stock up before the rush.
What You Should Actually Stockpile
Based on 13 years of studying supply disruptions and surviving multiple crises personally, here’s what matters:
Priority 1: Boring Staples (Buy Before Any Crisis)
- White rice: 50-100 lbs per person. Stores 30+ years. Provides baseline calories.
- Dried beans: 25-50 lbs per person. Multiple varieties. Complete protein with rice.
- Pasta: 25-50 lbs per person. Different shapes for variety. Faster cooking than rice.
- Flour: 25-50 lbs if you can bake. Or wheat berries if you have grain mill.
- Cooking oil: 2-4 gallons per person. Vegetable, coconut, or olive.
- Salt: 10-20 lbs per household. Iodized for nutrition, plain for preservation.
- Sugar/honey: 20-40 lbs sugar or equivalent honey. Makes bland food palatable.
Cost for Priority 1 (one person, one year): $200-300
Priority 2: Proteins and Variety (Stock Deeply)
- Canned meat: Chicken, tuna, salmon. 100-200 cans per person.
- Peanut butter: 10-20 jars per person. Protein and calories combined.
- Canned vegetables: 200-300 cans per household. All varieties.
- Canned fruit: 50-100 cans per household. Morale matters.
- Powdered milk: 5-10 containers per person. Calcium and protein.
Cost for Priority 2 (one person, one year): $400-600
Priority 3: Seasonings and Supplements (Often Forgotten)
- Spices: Full range, garlic, onion, chili, cumin, pepper, etc. $30-50 total.
- Bouillon: Chicken and beef. 10-15 jars. Makes everything better.
- Multivitamins: 3-5 bottles per person. Prevents deficiency diseases.
- Vitamin C: Separate supplement. Prevents scurvy during long-term storage food diet.
Cost for Priority 3: $100-150
Priority 4: Fats and Calories (High-Value Items)
- Ghee or lard: 5-10 pounds. Stores longer than butter.
- Coconut oil: 2-3 gallons. Better storage life than vegetable oil.
- Nuts in shell: 10-20 lbs. Fats, protein, stores year+ in shell.
- Seeds: Sunflower, pumpkin. Fats and variety.
Cost for Priority 4: $100-200
Total cost for one person, one year: $800-1,250
Compare that to freeze-dried food companies charging $3,000-5,000 for the same duration with less nutrition and variety.
When to Buy: The Strategic Timeline
Understanding what disappears when tells you when to buy what.
Right now (before any crisis): Buy everything on Priority 1 and 2. These are the items that disappear fastest and matter most. Rice, beans, pasta, canned goods, oils. Get a year’s supply while stores are fully stocked and prices are normal.
When you hear crisis warnings: Top off Priority 1 and 2. Buy additional Priority 3 and 4 items. This is your last chance before crowds panic-buy.
Day 1 of crisis: Stay home. Seriously. You already have what you need. Let everyone else fight over toilet paper. If you must go out, buy items still available: spices, specialty grains, less popular protein sources.
Days 3-7: Only go if absolutely necessary for something you forgot. By now, crowds are huge and shelves are thin. Not worth the exposure or hassle.
Week 2-4: Only for true emergencies. By now, shopping is competitive and dangerous. People are desperate. Supplies are minimal. Stay home and use what you have.
The goal is buying everything before Day 1. Not during. Not after. Before.
I haven’t panic-bought during a crisis since 2016 because I maintain rolling stockpiles of everything on these lists.
When COVID hit, when the Texas freeze happened, when hurricanes threatened, I stayed home. Already had everything needed.
That’s actual preparedness. Not shopping during crisis. Having supplies before crisis makes shopping necessary.
How to Monitor Crisis Development
You can often see crises developing days or weeks before the crowd realizes. This gives you time to top off supplies before panic buying starts.
Watch these indicators:
Supply chain news: Port congestion, trucker shortages, fuel prices, shipping delays. These signal developing problems before they hit retail stores.
Regional warnings: Hurricane forecasts, winter storm warnings, pandemic announcements. Official warnings trigger panic buying within hours.
Social media trends: Viral panic posts accelerate buying behavior. When you see panic content going viral, you have maybe 6-12 hours before store shelves empty.
International crises: Problems in other countries often signal coming issues at home. Venezuela’s collapse, European supply issues, Asian manufacturing disruptions, these ripple globally with 2-4 week delays.
Economic indicators: Inflation data, unemployment numbers, currency problems. Economic stress creates food insecurity that manifests as buying surges.
During COVID, I saw supply chain stress building in January 2020 through industry news.
I topped off my supplies in early February, before most Americans knew what coronavirus was.
By mid-March when panic buying hit, I was done shopping.
That early warning gave me two-month advantage over people who waited for official announcements before preparing.
Common Mistakes During Crisis Shopping
I’ve watched people make these mistakes during every crisis since 2012. Learn from their failures.
Mistake 1: Buying fresh food during crisis. Fresh food spoils in days. During sustained disruption, you’re gambling that stores will restock before food rots. Buy shelf-stable or don’t bother.
Mistake 2: Buying more of what you already have. During COVID, people who already had two weeks of food bought another two weeks.
Meanwhile, people with nothing got nothing. Buying excess you don’t need deprives others and wastes your money.
Mistake 3: Ignoring water. Food gets attention but water gets forgotten. Municipal water is reliable until it isn’t.
Store minimum 14 gallons per person (two weeks) before any crisis.
Mistake 4: Forgetting cooking fuel. You bought food but can you cook it without power? Propane, charcoal, wood, you need fuel to prepare stored food.
Mistake 5: No manual can opener. I’ve watched people struggle with electric can openers during power outages surrounded by canned food they can’t access. Buy $3 manual opener before crisis.
Mistake 6: Buying food you don’t eat. People buy sardines, lentils, quinoa, foods they never eat normally. Then they can’t stomach them during crisis. Store what you actually eat.
Mistake 7: All variety, no quantity. Buying 50 different items in small quantities leaves you with inadequate calories. Better to have large quantities of fewer staples than small amounts of many things.
I made Mistakes 1, 6, and 7 myself between 2012-2015. Wasted money buying fresh food before storms, exotic grains I couldn’t cook, and too much variety without enough bulk staples. Learn from my failures.
What’s Different This Time
Every crisis is somewhat unique. Understanding current vulnerabilities helps predict coming shortages.
Current supply chain weaknesses (2025):
Truck driver shortages remain chronic.
Transportation bottlenecks happen faster and last longer than pre-COVID.
Expect distribution delays during any spike in demand.
Manufacturing consolidation means fewer facilities producing more food. One plant closure creates regional shortages.
This is riskier than distributed manufacturing.
Just-in-time inventory is leaner than ever. Stores carry even less backup stock.
Disruption impact is faster and more severe.
Climate impacts are increasing. Crop failures, droughts, floods are more frequent.
Food prices are volatile and supply is less predictable.
Political instability affects food security.
Export restrictions, trade wars, international conflicts disrupt global food supply chains.
What this means for preppers:
Build bigger reserves than you think necessary. Three months minimum, one year ideal. System fragility is increasing, not decreasing.
Diversify food sources. Don’t depend solely on grocery stores. Consider farmers markets, bulk suppliers, direct from farmers, your own gardening.
Monitor warning signs more carefully. Disruptions develop faster now. You have less warning time between “everything’s fine” and “stores are empty.”
Focus on truly shelf-stable items. Supply chains will take longer to recover from future disruptions.
Two-week food is inadequate. Build for 3-12 months.
Taking Action: Your 30-Day Plan
If you’re reading this before crisis hits, here’s your systematic preparation plan.
Week 1: Buy Priority 1 staples. 50 lbs rice, 25 lbs beans, 20 lbs pasta, 2 gallons oil, salt, sugar. Cost: ~$100. Store in cool, dry place.
Week 2: Buy Priority 2 proteins and vegetables. 50 cans mixed protein, 100 cans vegetables, 20 cans fruit, peanut butter. Cost: ~$150. Rotate older items into regular use.
Week 3: Buy Priority 3 seasonings and supplements. All spices, bouillon, multivitamins. Cost: ~$75. These make everything else edible.
Week 4: Buy Priority 4 fats and test your preps. Additional oils, ghee, nuts. Cost: ~$75. Cook a week of meals from storage to test.
Total investment: $400 in one month builds three-month supply for one person.
Double quantities for six months. Triple for nine months. Quadruple for one year.
For families, multiply by number of people. Four-person family needs roughly $1,600 for one-year supply using this method.
Spread purchases across multiple stores to avoid drawing attention. Pay cash when possible.
Don’t tell neighbors or family what you’re doing unless they’re also preparing.
Final Reality Check
Food crises happen. They happened in 2020. They’ll happen again.
The question isn’t if. It’s when. And whether you’re ready before Day 1 or scrambling with everyone else trying to buy food that’s already gone.
I’ve been preparing since 2012. I’ve lived through multiple supply disruptions. I’ve watched panic buying destroy supply chains and leave unprepared people desperate.
The pattern never changes. Day 1: panic buying of wrong items. Week 1: crowds fighting over scraps. Week 2-4: sustained scarcity. Month 2+: real hardship for people who didn’t prepare.
Don’t be the person shopping on Day 1. Be the person who stocked up six months ago and sleeps well knowing your family won’t go hungry regardless of what happens.
Start building your stockpile today. Not tomorrow. Not when headlines get scary. Today.
Because the best time to prepare was years ago. The second best time is right now, before the next crisis makes it impossible.
Stay calm. Stay steady. Stock up before Day 1.